| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Maryland | 7-39 | 1131.5 | -9.2 | 1122.3 | 14.3% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Florida A&M | 56-14 | 1122.3 | +0.0 | 1122.3 | 10.2% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Florida International | 28-38 | 1122.3 | -28.5 | 1093.8 | 40.8% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Memphis | 26-55 | 1093.8 | -2.6 | 1091.2 | 2.3% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Rice | 27-21 | 1091.2 | +72.6 | 1163.8 | 18.9% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | UAB | 53-33 | 1163.8 | +41.8 | 1205.6 | 43.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | South Florida | 13-48 | 1205.6 | -6.7 | 1198.9 | 10.5% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Navy | 32-42 | 1198.9 | -4.2 | 1194.7 | 6.6% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Tulsa | 40-21 | 1194.7 | +27.0 | 1221.7 | 61.1% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Tulane | 24-35 | 1221.7 | -4.0 | 1217.7 | 6.3% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | UConn | 45-48 | 1217.7 | -16.2 | 1201.5 | 14.6% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | East Carolina | 3-42 | 1201.5 | -15.1 | 1186.4 | 13.6% |